RUSSIAN WAR IN UKRAINE AND VLADIMIR PUTIN – FORMER PUTIN ADVISOR SPEAKS WITH NEWSNATION MORNING IN AMERICA
In the second month of the Russia-Ukraine war, Andrei Illarionov, a former economic adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin, says the United States needs to do more to help Ukraine.
Andrey Nikolayevich Illarionov (Russian: Андрей Николаевич Илларионов, born 16 September 1961) is a Russian economist and former economic policy advisor to the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin from April 2000 to December 2005. Since April 2021 he is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy in Washington, DC.
wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrey_Illarionov
Read the extended Q&A with lllarionov below (Editor’s note: The following interview has been edited for length and clarity):
Question: How did you end up becoming the Chief Economic Adviser to Vladimir Putin?
Illarionov: I’m an economist by training. I graduated from the St. Petersburg University Department of Economics. I happened to establish an economic think tank and I was producing… not bad reports for a number of years. I was the only person in Russia who predicted correctly the 1998 economic crisis with default and devaluation of the Russian ruble.
It attracted a lot of attention in the country and in society. So that is why there were some people who recommended to the then-incoming President Vladimir Putin, when he was looking for an economic adviser, to talk to me.
Question: How close was your relationship with Putin? Would you call him a friend at one point?
Illarionov: Never. It’s impossible to have a friend among presidents. They are very particular types of animals so that is why I seriously doubt they could have any friends at all. But certainly, it was not my plan (to befriend Putin) and I never thought of such ideas. My idea was just to view this position to help the country have high and sustainable growth rates, and to some extent, I succeeded.
Question: There may not be anyone in America who understands the workings of the Russian economy, like you do. When you see sanctions now that are put on Russia, do you think that they’re significant enough to have an impact that might sway oligarchs that might move powerful people against Vladimir Putin? Or do you think that maybe these are toothless?
Illarionov: One of the greatest misconceptions in the West and the United States, is the role of the so-called oligarchs in the Russian economy and Russian political system. These roles are next to zero.
I’ve heard so much through all these years about the oligarchs, about how it is important to put sanctions or how to put them in a very difficult position. If you’d like to make life miserable for those people, it’s OK. But if you think that those sanctions would make changes in the decision-making process of Mr. Putin or of Kremlin, it’s wrong. It’s a mistake. You have no chance because they have no impact on the decision-making process with Mr. Putin.
Question: So, we’re really talking about the will of one man here?
Illarionov: Exactly. Because the political system and political regime in Russia is not like the United States or in any Western countries. It is not a democracy. It’s not even semi-democracy. It is even not even an authoritarian regime anymore. Right now, it’s a totalitarian regime with just a one-man show.
The main decisions, like this attack on Ukraine, have been taken by one person. No oligarchs whatsoever could have any impact on this decision. So that is why you can punish anyone. You can punish 145 million Russian citizens and it will not change the decision-making process of Putin.
Question: Is it because he doesn’t care that millions of Russians have wiped out their savings, that the ruble is now fractions of a penny. He just doesn’t care?
Illarionov: He doesn’t care. He has his goal. It is his dream. It is his dream for at least a couple of decades and he’s ready to sacrifice everything — especially that which does not belong to him — to reach this goal.
Question: As you watch what’s happening in Ukraine, what do you think is driving Vladimir Putin? What is motivating him right now?
Illarionov: His goal is to destroy the statehood of Ukraine. He had this idea, this goal for the last two decades. Even when I was his adviser, I saw for myself his intentions against Ukraine. I saw then that he had many opportunities to express his desire, his wish to destroy Ukraine, to take Ukraine under his control, to capture Kyiv. So that is why this is a realization of his long-term goal.
Question: You’ve been talking about this for a number of years. What gave you that indication that that was ultimately his goal?
Illarionov: Those who are following the events in Russian-Ukraine relations would probably recall the year 2003 —19 years ago — the attempt to capture the Tuzla strip in the Strait of Kerch. Probably not very many people remember right now but that was the first, not only expression of his desire to get something, but it was his real action — the capture of that strip.
In the year 2008, during the Bucharest NATO Summit, Putin talked to U.S. President George Bush, Jr., (and said) that Ukraine is not a real state. (He said) it is a failed state and half of the territory of Ukraine should belong to Russia. This was the official expression of his desire to capture part of that country.
In the year 2014, as we know, he occupied Crimea and launched a war in Donbas. Since then, he kept telling everyone publicly, not only privately, but publicly, that he would like to destroy the statehood of Ukraine.
So that is why this attack should not be a surprise at all.
Question: Is there anything about the conflict that you think is important for people to know?
Illarionov: The United States needs to fulfill its general, basic obligation to the rest of the world as it is the best guarantor of peace, security and freedom around the world. There is no other country that can do what the United States can do.
This is a particular challenge to the United States — not only to the administration but to society as well. The United States needs to support Ukraine, needs to help Ukraine. The most important thing that can be done by the United States is to provide weapons to Ukraine, a lot of weapons.
Ukraine can defend itself if it would have weapons — different types of weapons, heavy weapons, offensive weapons, anti-air, anti-missile, anti-Navy weapons. Ukraine needs weapons and the only country that can provide all these weapons in necessary amounts, and to give permission to other NATO countries to provide these weapons, is the United States.
The United States administration does not do it. And this is doubtful collaboration with Putin in his attack against Ukraine. So these positions (by the U.S. government) must be changed.
Question: With $16 billion from Congress and $2 billion authorized by the White House, you’re saying the US should do significantly more?
Illarionov: Out of this amount, military support is only $800 million. All the rest is humanitarian support.
Let me compare these $800 million for one year with the $83 billion that the United States gave to the Afghan army over 20 years. It’s in addition to more than $2 trillion that the United States spent in Afghanistan for the US army over there.
This is a real war. This is a big war. This is the biggest war in Europe since the Second World War. Do you know how much military support has been given by great superpower Luxembourg to Ukraine? $250 million. Those numbers are comparable — what has been given by Luxembourg and what has been given by the US administration of Mr. Biden.
Czech Republic — also not the greatest superpower in the world — has provided military support for $1 billion.
So it gives anyone the understanding of how the United States administration is de facto not supporting Ukraine enough with something that is really the biggest need for Ukrainians right now — weapons, weapons, and once again, weapons.
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Question: What do you make of Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy and his leadership so far?
Illarionov: I was rather critical about him before this attack. From my point of view, he made many mistakes and he did not prepare the country for an attack, which was absolutely obvious. He preferred to spend five times more money for the construction of roads, not on the military. Now those roads are being used by Russian tanks. So that was a big blunder.
But since the beginning of the attack, he demonstrated a remarkable stance against the aggression. And he did not leave Kyiv, as President Biden suggested to him. Regardless of the pressure on him from the Western countries that removed their embassies from the Ukrainian capital, he stayed there. So he definitely has personal courage.
Question: So what made you leave the Kremlin in the 2000-2005 timeframe?
Illarionov: Changes in the political system and the changing in political regime. When I became the economic adviser to Mr. Putin, Russia had a semi-free political regime. And after a few years, due to Mr. Putin’s efforts, the political regime became non-free. It became an authoritarian regime, with a very high level of repressions against the opposition, with attacks on different people.
For example, during the Beslan (school) siege, more than 300 kids, parents and teachers were killed by Russian troops and special services. And it was absolutely impossible for me to stay his sherpa in G8 in such circumstances. And that’s why I announced ‘Yes, I cannot work with an authoritarian political regime,’ and I resigned.
Question: You’ve been openly critical of Vladimir Putin. Do you fear that he sees you, that he understands what you’re saying and that maybe you’re a target of Vladimir Putin?
Illarionov: Could you explain to me why I should be silent? Who would say that to the world, to the people of Russia, to the people of the United States, to the people of the world? Somebody must say what is going on.
Because that situation should not stay like this, it should be changed. And for that, it’s necessary to change the minds of people around the world. If the mindset of people around the world — especially in the United States and Western countries — will not be changed, it would continue. And this would be a catastrophe for Russia, Ukraine and for the rest of the world.
If Putin is not stopped, he would continue on. It will mean thousands or tens of thousands more death. He’s already responsible for deaths — some people calculated – may be up to 500,000 or 600,000 deaths in Russia and outside of Russia. So how long should we tolerate this endless spiral of deaths produced by one person?
Question: Has the thought ever crossed your mind that your name may be on one of Putin’s kill lists?
Illarionov: Once again, we can compare one person and 600,000 people —we don’t know how many others could become victims of that person. So that is why the world needs to understand that these actions must be stopped. The sooner, the better. Because if he is not stopped in Ukraine, he would go further.
Question: A lot has been said about his mindset, his psychology, Some say that he has been isolated. Do you see anything different in his behavior now than what you saw when you were working under him?
Illarionov: Yes and no. It’s clear that the circle of people who he consults with is definitely narrow, and they are more military people and security people, and people like that. But on the other hand, he is still the same person who would like to execute his imperial dreams.
More at https://aillarionov.livejournal.com/
NewsNationNow.com/world/russia-at-war/vladimir-putin-economic-adviser-andrei-illarionov-sanctions-biden/
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