Democrats Credit Mamdani for Falling Homicides—but the Major Decline Began With Trump’s Return and Criminal Deportations.

New York City is recording historic public-safety numbers. Democratic leaders are presenting the continued decline as evidence of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s success—even though the sharpest drop began in 2025, after Donald Trump returned to the White House and months before Mamdani entered City Hall.

The Democratic Party is already promoting New York City’s crime statistics with the phrase “under Mayor Mamdani.”

In one public message, the party celebrated what it described as the safest first months of a year in New York City’s recorded history. The political implication was clear: Democratic leadership, and particularly the new mayor, was responsible for making the city safer.

Mamdani has used similar language. In discussing his administration’s public-safety record, he has argued that its approach is working and has connected the latest statistics to the policies introduced or continued under his leadership.

There is only one major problem with that political narrative:

The calendar does not support it.

Mamdani Inherited a Rapidly Falling Homicide Rate

Zohran Mamdani took office as mayor on January 1, 2026.

But New York City’s historic decline in homicides and shootings was already well underway during 2025—months before Mamdani became mayor.

In June 2025, the NYPD announced that the first five months of the year had produced the lowest number of murders and shooting incidents for that period in the city’s modern recorded history.

From January through May 2025, New York City recorded 112 homicides. May itself also set a record, with 18 murders—below the previous low of 19.

By the end of the first half of 2025:

homicides had fallen by approximately 23%;
shooting incidents had declined by approximately 23%;
the number of shooting victims had reached a historic low;
major crime had been declining for several consecutive reporting periods.

All of this happened before Mamdani entered City Hall.

The Largest Drop Occurred in 2025

New York City recorded approximately 305 homicides in 2025, compared with 382 in 2024.

That represented a decline of roughly 20.2% in a single year—77 fewer homicide victims.

Shooting incidents fell by approximately 24%, while the number of people wounded by gunfire declined by approximately 22%.

December 2025 reportedly produced the lowest monthly number of shooting incidents in the history of the NYPD’s modern statistical system.

That was the public-safety environment Mamdani inherited on January 1, 2026.

The new mayor did not begin with 2024 crime levels. He inherited:

Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch;
an existing precision-policing strategy;
targeted anti-violence zones;
ongoing investigations of street gangs;
large-scale seizures of illegal firearms;
historically low shooting numbers;
a city in which homicides had already dropped by more than 20%.

Therefore, the statement that New York City established new records “under Mamdani” may be technically correct as a description of timing.

But it does not mean that Mamdani created the decline.

What Changed After Trump Returned to Office

Donald Trump began his second presidential term on January 20, 2025.

His administration immediately changed federal immigration-enforcement policy, expanded interior enforcement and increased the arrest and removal of people living in the United States illegally.

During the administration’s first 100 days, ICE reported 66,463 immigration arrests. According to the agency, approximately three-quarters of those arrested had criminal convictions or pending criminal charges.

ICE said the criminal histories and charges associated with those arrested included:

homicide;
assault;
sexual offenses;
weapons violations;
gang activity;
impaired driving and other crimes.

One individual could appear in more than one criminal category, and a pending charge is not the same as a conviction. Those distinctions matter.

By January 2026, the Department of Homeland Security reported more than 670,000 removals during the administration’s first year.

That does not mean that all 670,000 removed individuals were convicted criminals. It would be inaccurate to describe every deportee as a criminal.

The accurate statement is this:

The Trump administration removed hundreds of thousands of people who were in the country illegally while also arresting and removing a substantial number of people with criminal convictions, pending charges or alleged gang connections.

At the same time, homicide rates were falling sharply in New York and in numerous other American cities.

The Timeline Democrats Rarely Mention

The chronology is difficult to ignore.

January 20, 2025: Trump returns to the White House and expands federal immigration enforcement.

January through May 2025: New York City records its safest first five months for homicides and shootings in the modern statistical era.

First half of 2025: homicides decline by approximately 23%.

Full year 2025: homicides fall by approximately 20.2%, while shootings decline by approximately 24%.

January 1, 2026: Mamdani takes office and inherits an already functioning policing strategy and historically low crime levels.

First seven months of 2026: the decline continues, with 149 homicides compared with 193 during the same period of 2025—a further reduction of approximately 22.8%.

These dates do not prove that every prevented homicide was the direct result of Trump’s immigration policies.

But they establish one fact beyond dispute:

Mamdani did not start the decline.

Brooklyn Tells the Same Story

Brooklyn recorded only two homicides in July 2026, occurring on July 1 and July 2.

The borough then went 29 consecutive days without a homicide—reportedly the longest such period in Brooklyn’s modern recorded history.

During the first seven months of 2026, Brooklyn homicides fell by more than one-third compared with the already historically low numbers recorded during the same period in 2025.

But the improvement did not begin when Mamdani became mayor.

During the first half of 2025, while Eric Adams was still mayor:

Brooklyn homicides had already fallen by approximately 29%;
shooting incidents had declined by approximately 19%;
shooting victims had decreased by approximately 15%.

Brooklyn District Attorney Eric Gonzalez has attributed the progress to a combination of targeted law enforcement, prosecution of dangerous offenders, police work, community partnerships and violence-prevention programs.

He has not claimed that the decline suddenly began because New York elected a new mayor.

What Directly Contributed to the Decline

Official NYPD statements identify precision policing as one of the most immediate factors behind the reduction in gun violence.

In January 2025, the NYPD identified 42 geographic zones with especially high concentrations of shootings and gang activity. Although those areas represented only about 3.5% of the city, they accounted for approximately 41% of shooting incidents.

The strategy was later expanded to dozens of summer enforcement zones, with as many as 2,000 officers assigned to foot patrols and targeted deployments.

During the hours when these officers were deployed, shootings and shooting injuries reportedly declined dramatically.

During the first half of 2025, the NYPD also conducted dozens of gang-related operations, arrested hundreds of suspected gang members and associates and seized illegal firearms.

By the end of 2025, the department reported more than 5,000 illegal guns recovered and approximately 70 major gang operations.

A substantial part of the strategy that Mamdani now presents as part of his administration’s approach was designed, implemented and already producing record results before he took office.

What Mamdani Can Fairly Claim

It would also be inaccurate to argue that Mamdani deserves no credit at all for the results recorded during 2026.

His administration retained Jessica Tisch as police commissioner. The NYPD continued targeted deployments, anti-gang investigations, illegal-gun seizures and intensified patrols in areas with concentrated violence.

During the first seven months of 2026, homicides fell by another 22.8%, and July reportedly became the safest July on record for homicides, shootings and shooting victims.

Mamdani can reasonably say that the positive trend continued during his administration.

But continuing a trend is not the same as creating it.

The Political Rewrite

The Democratic Party now uses a politically convenient formulation:

New York City established historic public-safety records under Mayor Mamdani.

The statement hides three essential facts.

First, the record-setting decline began in 2025, before Mamdani became mayor.

Second, the principal policing strategy was developed and implemented under the previous city administration.

Third, the sharp drop in homicides coincided with Trump’s return to office, expanded federal immigration enforcement and the arrest and removal of many individuals with criminal records, pending charges or alleged gang affiliations.

Publicly available information does not allow anyone to calculate precisely how much of the decline resulted from NYPD strategy, federal immigration enforcement, prosecution, community programs, demographic changes or the broader nationwide decrease in homicides.

Correlation alone does not establish causation.

But the available dates and figures do establish this:

Mamdani inherited a historic decline that was already underway. Democrats are now attempting to present its continuation as proof that their latest electoral victory made New York City safer.

The crime numbers are real.

But political messaging cannot change when the decline actually began.

Sources and Official Documents

Democratic Party and Mamdani Administration Claims

Crime Decline Before Mamdani Took Office

New York City and Brooklyn Statistics for 2026

Trump Administration Immigration Enforcement

Additional NYPD Data

Editorial note: The timing of expanded federal immigration enforcement and the decline in homicides does not, by itself, prove a direct causal relationship. Arrests may include both people with criminal convictions and people facing pending charges, and not every person removed from the United States had a criminal conviction. The sources above are provided so readers can compare the official dates, statistics and political claims directly.