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Pandemic: today and tomorrow

A new coronavirus infection (“COVID-19” – Corona Virus Disease) in the long run may be more
threatening than it currently seems, depending on the lifespan of the virus, its survival in different
environments, the speed of the person’s immune response, whether the virus reoccurs in the patients who
have recovered from it, and on other still unexplored but still important for epidemiology characteristics.
Assuming that we can effectively cope with the current COVID-19 pandemic, we should still proceed
from the fact that there is a high possibility of another, more contagious, therefore more dangerous
infection. Thus, today it is necessary to prepare measures aimed at developing certain effective, yet cheap
and accessible in everyday life, behavioral standards.
One of the global risk factors determining the degree of danger for the future population, in the light of
the current pandemic, should be the fact, that population on the earth has increased by more than three
times (from 2 755 823 people in 1955 to 8 551 000 people in 2030), leading to a proportional
intensification of communication between people. This growth contributed in the spread of the infection,
and inevitably reduced the possibility of managing the epidemic situation with the high contagiousness
infection of COVID-19.
We believe that an excess and uncontrolled increase in population density per unit of territory itself and in
combination with the innate cognitive spirit and human nature of a consumer cause a direct, inevitable
and obvious threat to humanity. Such threat lies not only in the possible repetition of situations like
“COVID-19”, but also in terms of the “deterioration” of the earth, and also in terms of ecology,
economics, and in terms of all other spheres of human activity and human achievements, which COVID-
19 clearly demonstrates us today.
The expected increase in population in near 100 years itself doesn’t even give us illusions about the
positive perspectives for humankind existence, not mentioning all other man-made threats. Since
«tomorrow» is coming really fast, we need to raise the questions that can properly prepare us for the
future challenges.
Thus, the authorities should consider the Paradigm proposed below as one of the effective tools for a
comprehensive and anticipatory impact on society as the whole and on individuals separately. The
Paradigm is aimed to prevent the spread of dangerous infections and to deal with the consequences
caused by such “intrusions”.
The new COVID-19 Coronavirus can become just one of the crucial signals for the authorities that
catastrophic events are to develop at any time in our future if we do not take comprehensive measures to
effectively manage the epidemic situation from a highly contagious airborne infection.
The events in China led us, traditionally, to discuss the problem in order to find an effective and
affordable set of tools and approaches to protect ourselves and our patients, and that is why the following
conclusions and suggestion appeared. The correctness of our forecasts was confirmed by subsequent
events of the distribution of “COVID-19” around the world.

As a result, we formulated a convenient and uncomplicated behavioral Paradigm (a set of tools and
approaches of nine points) for each person and for the society as a whole. The Paradigm is a pattern of
everyday life. All points of our pattern are well known and effective, even taken separately.
We proposed combining them into a system, which should have a reinforcing effect (synergy) on the spread of the infection, the effect provided by the interaction of two or more factors.
For a simple understanding (for individuals, society and authorities), for a systematic approach and for an easy usage, we proposed to name the Paradigm (based on the residence of the authors and combining the
capital letters of the nine points of the complex) “Bamut Health Paradigm”. This decision was made to facilitate the memorization of the paradigm and to help the introduction of the paradigm into private and public life, as well as to improve epidemic management.
Each point of the Paradigm can be supplemented in accordance with the science innovations, practice, by an individual and by authority at the discretion for own application.
Bamut Health Paradigm Pitaniye (Nutrition) – stimulating the immune system by eating right food;
Aseptica (Asepsis) – preventing the spread of the infection by treating the items of usage;
Rezhim (Schedule) – forming right schedule of work and rest (sleep);
Antiseptica (Antiseptics) – treating the infection in the patient’s body by right methods;
Distancia (Distance) – implementing distance learning, distance work. Organizing the communication at a distance of 2 meters, etc.;
Immunitet (Immunity) – developing the immune system by physiotherapy exercises, massage, cold showers (hardening);
Gigiyena (Hygiene) – frequent hand washing, changing of clothes, and performing other personal hygiene measures;
Maski (Masks) – wearing facial masks in all public places;
Avtarkiya (Autarky. Observation) – self-isolating during the quarantine.
We propose the introduction of the Paradigm as an everyday pattern of lifestyle for individuals and as a comprehensive measure of the authorities to effectively manage the epidemic situation and prevent the spread of infection in a certain territory. We already have the situation with the new coronavirus COVID-19 and, unfortunately, we will reap the fruits of our lifestyle and perhaps we will not have enough time to fully apply (implement) the proposed Paradigm.
However, from the above it should be taken into consideration that we, people of 50-70 years old, can still be able to witness the time when an infection similar to COVID-19 but with a much
more serious threat to humanity will reveal to us. That is why the Paradigm without additional direct costs may be one of the effective ways to protect people and society.
It should also be concluded that in the long term there should be a tendency for settlements (village, city) with population not more than 500 thousand people. This settlements should

communicate with each other, have to be livelihood and people should have social “self-
awareness”. Thus, it will be possible to effectively isolate the society from the outside world. In
this case the proposed Paradigm and similar measures will become one of the effective tools of power, allowing dealing with the epidemiological situation without violating the life-supporting processes in society.
In this sense, it is highly possible that megalopolises do not have a future in terms of the managing the epidemic situation and not only in that. Even now such cities are more a burden to the society rather than a dignity of an organized social life.
In addition, the authorities and society should determine the optimal population density per unit of territory. This is crucial in the terms of human survival and becomes obvious in the situations with infectious diseases or with similar means of mass destruction of the population.
The organization of social life, based on the optimal population density per unit area, is the only indicator of the foreseeable future, which can form a positive perspective for the survival of mankind.
We consider it equally important to pay attention to the fact that the responsibility for the health and life of each of us cannot be transferred to fellow neighbors, to the state or to the society. All of the listed participants in the life support processes will assist people the best way they are capable due to many circumstances. But still all responsibility for a person’s health and life lies fully on his or her own shoulders at the exact point how much this person values his or her own life. The recent tendency creating a health policy based on appeals, and complaints of citizens who are used to throw the full responsibility for the health and life of a person at doctors and medical institutions, thereby encouraging an irresponsible attitude of the citizens themselves, becomes a dead end leaving to a low level of population protection.

President of the Charitable Foundation “Darben Oyel (The Health Concerns)”,
Chersi G. Gudiev

April 2020

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